The Global Environmental Impacts of China's Accession to the WTO: A 20-Year Review.

Robust empirical assessments of the long-term cumulative global effects of free trade and economic globalization on the environment are limited. This account fills this gap by constructing a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to estimate the environmental effects of a milestone in the recent history of trade liberalization: China's 20-year World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. The modeling shows that China's accession could have resulted in an increase in the global cumulative greenhouse gases (GHGs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by roughly 14,000 Mt CO2-eq, 64 Mt, and 46 Mt, respectively. The global production scale effect contributed to most of these estimated increases. The regional total output composition effect also caused higher emissions. Meanwhile, the sectoral output composition effect helped reduce total emissions to a limited extent. Fortunately, a package of emission abatement measures led to a decrease in emission factors and a drop in the global cumulative emissions of GHGs, SO2, and NOx. The findings suggest that to enjoy the free trade and economic globalization benefits and minimize the induced emission increases, it is vitally important to systemically reduce emissions across the entire economy and nurture a low-carbon trade regime.

Exploring the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of carbon emissions and air pollution in Chinese cities.

Based on data from 335 cities in China, this study employs the standard deviation ellipse method to portray unbalanced and differential spatiotemporal evolution patterns of environmental emissions and socioeconomic elements. A logarithmic mean Divisia index analysis and in-depth discussion are carried out to disclose the main driving factors and underlying reasons for the differences. Decoupling trends exist among carbon emissions, gross domestic product (GDP) and population in terms of their gravity center migrations. The standard deviation ellipse direction of carbon emissions gradually changed from 'northeast‒southwest' to 'northwest‒southeast', and the standard deviation ellipse areas of carbon emissions and air pollution continuously expanded over time; at the same time, that of GDP contracted. Economic growth has always been the main driver of carbon emissions and air pollution nationally, but its role has weakened. Moreover, decreases in the energy intensity and carbon and pollution intensities are the main factors contributing to emissions reductions. Differentiated spatiotemporal economic structure evolution, regional heterogeneities in the energy intensity and efficiency, and cross-region power energy transmissions are identified as the underlying reasons for the unbalanced spatiotemporal patterns of the environmental emissions and socioeconomic elements. Based on these findings, policy suggestions can be made to address the imbalances and promote carbon mitigation, air quality improvement and high-quality social-economic development at the city level.

Impact of the emergency response to COVID-19 on air quality and its policy implications: Evidence from 290 cities in China.

The emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic had an extreme exogenous impact on society and the economy. This paper aims to explore the impacts of the national emergency response and the subsequent emergency response termination on air quality and its policy implications through regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimation by employing panel data on daily air quality from January 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020, for 290 cities in China. The empirical results showed that the emergency response resulted in a significant decrease in most of the major pollutant concentrations within a short time frame, and the average air quality index (AQI) decreased by approximately 11.0%. The concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO decreased by approximately 18.8%, 13.1%, 13.5%, 11.1% and 6.7%, respectively, while the O3 concentration did not change significantly. Further causal analysis found that mandatory traffic restrictions and the shutdown of industries were two important factors that contributed greatly to air quality improvement. Moreover, since the process of returning to normal daily activities and promoting the economy were gradual, the results showed that air pollution did not rebound immediately after the government called for the "resumption of production and work" and announced the "termination of the emergency response". Our findings suggest that to achieve a substantial and sustainable improvement in air quality, it is necessary to continuously implement strict emission control routines and take co-control measures for various VOCs precursors of ozone.

Closing the Gap between Carbon Neutrality Targets and Action: Technology Solutions for China's Key Energy-Intensive Sectors.

Facing significant carbon emissions annually, China requires a clear decarbonization strategy to meet its climate targets. This study presents a MESSAGEix-CAEP model to explore Chinese decarbonization pathways and their cost-benefit under two mitigation scenarios by establishing connections between five energy-intensive sectors based on energy and material flows. The results indicated the following: 1) Interaction and feedback between sectors should not be disregarded. The electrification process of the other four sectors was projected to increase electricity production by 206%, resulting in a higher power demand than current forecasts. 2) The marginal abatement cost to achieve carbon neutrality across all five sectors was 2189 CNY/tCO2, notably higher than current Chinese carbon emission trading prices. 3) The cost-benefit analysis indicates that a more ambitious abatement strategy would decrease the marginal abatement cost and result in a higher net carbon abatement benefit. The cumulative net benefit of carbon reduction was 7.8 trillion CNY under ambitious mitigation scenario, 1.3 trillion CNY higher than that under current Chinese mitigation scenario. These findings suggest that policy-makers should focus on the interaction effects of decarbonization pathways between sectors and strengthen their decarbonization efforts to motivate early carbon reduction.

Dairy Trade Helps to Alleviate Global Carbon Emission Pressure.

Global dairy production, consumption, and trade are growing rapidly, driven by population and per capita income growth and increasing health concerns mainly from developing countries, which has aroused concerns about the related carbon emission (mostly in the form of methane) increase. If all of the dairy products consumed were produced locally/domestically in the developing countries/economies (a counterfactual scenario), the carbon emissions in 2018 would be 28 Mt CO2-equiv higher than its status quo (a factual scenario). The present study indicates that unlike in many global trade cases in which carbon leakages are from developed to developing countries, global dairy trade is characterized by net embodied carbon flows from developed to developing countries/economies due to the fact that there is an overwhelming one-way-flow of dairy products from developed to developing countries/economies. The differences in the carbon emission factors between the developed and developing countries/economies provide an opportunity that global dairy trade and production specialization can help to reduce carbon emissions from increasing dairy product demand, and the total reduction potential is estimated to be about 414 Mt CO2-equiv from 2018 to 2030. Free trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will incentivize larger carbon emission reduction benefits through promoting dairy trade.

Breaking down barriers on PV trade will facilitate global carbon mitigation.

The global trade of solar photovoltaic (PV) products substantially contributes to increases in solar power generation and carbon emissions reductions. This paper depicts global PV product trade patterns, explores emissions reduction potential, and evaluates the impeding effect of tariff barriers on global PV product trade and emissions reductions. Solar power generation will result in a reduction of emissions in a range of 50-180 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) between 2017 and 2060 in a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Compared with BAU, during 2017-2060, global total solar cell and module production and installation will increase by roughly 750 gigawatts (GW) if half of the status quo trade barrier are removed, while it will decrease by 160-370 GW under tensioned trade barrier scenarios. Trade barrier reduction by half from the 2017 status quo level will increase the net carbon emissions mitigation potential by 4-12 GtCO2e by 2060, while extra trade barrier imposition will result in global net carbon emissions mitigation potential decreasing by up to 3-4 GtCO2e by 2060. Well-coordinated policy and institutional reforms are recommended to facilitate PV product trade and to deliver the related global environmental benefits.

Global and National Environmental Impacts of the US-China Trade War.

The recent "US-China trade war" has aroused concern over trade-related environmental impacts. This study built a multiregional computable general equilibrium model to simulate environmental impacts of the "US-China trade war" under different scenarios of tariff and nontariff barriers and the battlefield spreading ranges. The present study found that although the trade war will cause a global economic downturn, which will seemingly reduce environmental pressure globally, global carbon emissions are expected to increase rather than decline. On the one hand, the CO2 emission increase caused by land-use changes in Brazil and Argentina will far exceed the emission reduction because of decreased global production. On the other hand, some countries/economies especially those developing countries such as Vietnam, Russia, and India will face emission increases driven by scale effects. Countries such as Korea, the UK, and France will enjoy a reduction in emissions driven by structural effects. China and the US will face a reduction in production and CO2 emissions, but their CO2 emission intensities will rise. The results remind us that as global production and supply chains are formed, it is important to closely monitor trade-related environmental impacts. Efforts should be made to balance the interests of trade and the environment.

Exploring the influencing paths of natives' conservation behavior and policy incentives in protected areas: Evidence from China.

To enhance ecosystem conservation in protected areas, natives' behavior, mainly the use of natural resources or direct human disturbance to ecosystems, must be well intervened and regulated. To explore the determinants and incentives of the conservation behavior of natives, this paper establishes a theoretical behavior model emphasizing livelihood assets and conservation policy impacts, and specifies it with structural equation modeling. The protected areas of Chishui county in southwest China and the Three-River-Source National Park in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were selected for empirical analyses based on household surveys. Results show that conservation intentions that shape the natives' conservation behavior are collectively decided by conservation attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control. Livelihood assets exert indirect positive effects on conservation behavior by influencing the aforementioned psychological variables. The impacts on conservation behavior of the governmental policy instruments, Grain to Green Program, Grassland Ecological Protection Subsidy and Incentive Policy, and Ecological Ranger Post Setting are evaluated. The command & control functions of the first two instruments are verified to be effective. The propaganda & education functions of all three policy instruments affect conservation intention and behavior by influencing conservation attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control of the natives. The ecological compensation functions of the policies prevent the loss of the natives' livelihood assets but fail to enhance it. The findings demonstrate that besides the direct impacts on conservation behavior of the protection policy instruments, the indirect policy impacts affecting the protection consciousness of natives should not be underestimated. In the long run, a suggestion is to strengthen eco-compensation to improve livelihood assets, to better promote the protection behavior of the local residents and obtain sustainable ecosystem conservation in the protected areas. This research demonstrates applicability and feasibility of the behavioral theory and causal model method in natural conservation study and shows strong policy implication.

Production efficiency and GHG emissions reduction potential evaluation in the crop production system based on emergy synthesis and nonseparable undesirable output DEA: A case study in Zhejiang Province, China.

Maintaining crop outputs to feed its large population with limited resources while simultaneously mitigating carbon emissions are great challenges for China. Improving the efficiency of resource use in crop production is important in reducing carbon emissions. This paper constructs a methodological framework combining emergy-based indicator accounting and a nonseparable undesirable output slack-based measurement (SBM) data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. This framework is used to explore the efficiency of inputs and outputs and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential for crop production systems, using Zhejiang province, China, as a case study. It is found that an emergy synthesis and a nonseparable undesirable output SBM-DEA framework is compatible with the case study. Crop production in Zhejiang province has relied heavily on an increase in agrochemical inputs to maintain agricultural output. Energy and chemical fertilizer use are determined as the province's major carbon emissions sources. Although carbon emissions per unit of monetary output has decreased sharply, the carbon emissions per unit emergy output has increased, demonstrating a high carbon intensity reality. The DEA highlighted the differences in crop production efficiency, resource factor redundancy and carbon mitigation potential in the different prefectures of the province. To conclude this research, policies to support low carbon agriculture development, including subsidizing low carbon agriculture technology development and expansion and the cancellation of subsidies to high carbon production factors, such as chemical fertilizer production and sales, are discussed to conclude the research.

Exploring the value of overseas biodiversity to Chinese netizens based on willingness to pay for the African elephants' protection.

For a long time, Chinese people have been considered to be concerned only with commercial interests but not ecological systems and biodiversity conservation, even though their trade and investment footprints are globalizing rapidly. This study intended to reveal the non-market valuation on the non-use value of African elephant to Chinese people. Taking the ban of ivory trade as the background, in this study, Chinese netizens' willingness to pay for African elephant conservation was investigated using the contingent valuation method. Four versions of questionnaires were designed and distinguished by offering different background information and payment vehicles (tax and donation). It was demonstrated that the differences in both given information and payment vehicles had no significant impacts on the estimated mean willingness to pay value. 53.36% of the respondents gave positive responses for the hypothetical projects of African elephant protection. The mean willingness to pay was 83.62 RMB (12.59 USD) and 158.58 RMB (23.88 USD) per year per household and the aggregated willingness to pay or benefits for the protection of African elephants from Chinese netizens were estimated to be 16.31 billion RMB (2.45 billion USD) and 30.92 billion RMB (4.65 billion USD) per year after grouping regression and benefit transfer adjustments, respectively. The current research shows that Chinese people, living thousands kilometers away from Africa, have a high public awareness for and valuation to the endangered elephants.

GHGs and air pollutants embodied in China's international trade: Temporal and spatial index decomposition analysis.

Temporal index decomposition analysis and spatial index decomposition analysis were applied to understand the driving forces of the emissions embodied in China's exports and net exports during 2002-2011, respectively. The accumulated emissions embodied in exports accounted for approximately 30% of the total emissions in China; although the contribution of the sectoral total emissions intensity (technique effect) declined, the scale effect was largely responsible for the mounting emissions associated with export, and the composition effect played a largely insignificant role. Calculations of the emissions embodied in net exports suggest that China is generally in an environmentally inferior position compared with its major trade partners. The differences in the economy-wide emission intensities between China and its major trade partners were the biggest contribution to this reality, and the trade balance effect played a less important role. However, a lower degree of specialization in pollution intensive products in exports than in imports helped to reduce slightly the emissions embodied in net exports. The temporal index decomposition analysis results suggest that China should take effective measures to optimize export and supply-side structure and reduce the total emissions intensity. According to spatial index decomposition analysis, it is suggested that a more aggressive import policy was useful for curbing domestic and global emissions, and the transfer of advanced production technologies and emission control technologies from developed to developing countries should be a compulsory global environmental policy option to mitigate the possible leakage of pollution emissions caused by international trade.

Adjusting export tax rebates to reduce the environmental impacts of trade: Lessons from China.

Export tax rebates are an important policy instrument for stimulating exports, which many developing countries make use of. However, excessive export tax rebates and inappropriate structural arrangements can lead to over-production in highly polluting industries and cause the environment to deteriorate. This paper, taking China as the study case, tests and verifies the statistical significance of the causal relationship between export tax rebates and pollution emissions. With a computable general equilibrium modeling, the current study further analyzes the effectiveness of export tax rebate adjustments aimed at alleviating environmental pressure for different time periods. It is found that before 2003, export tax rebates primarily promoted exports and boosted foreign exchange reserves, and highly polluting sectors enjoyed above-average export tax rebates, which led to increased pollution emissions. Between 2003 and 2010, the export tax rebate system was reformed to reduce support for the highly polluting export sectors, which led to decreases in emissions. Canceling export tax rebates for highly polluting sectors is shown to be the most favorable policy choice for improving the environmental performance of China's international trade. This study can serve as reference for other developing countries which similarly rely on export tax rebates, so that they can adjust their policies so as to combine economic growth with pollution control.

How well have China's recent five-year plans been implemented for energy conservation and air pollution control?

This study evaluates how well China's 11th and 12th Five-Year Plans have been implemented in terms of energy conservation and air pollution control and deconstructs the effects of the economic, energy, and environmental policies included in the Plans. A "counterfactual" comparative-scenario method is deployed, which assumes a business as usual scenario in which the changes in economic, energy, and environmental parameters are "frozen", and then reactivates them one by one, with the help of LEAP modeling. It is found that during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the binding targets were basically achieved. Economic growth put a great strain upon the energy demand and the environment, but energy policy made a decisive contribution by promoting energy efficiency and structure. Environmental policy promoted the deployment of end-of-pipe treatment which led to the control of certain air pollutants but at the expense of an increase in energy use and in the emission of other pollutants. During the ongoing 12th Five-Year Plan period, energy policy's potential for efficiency improvement is shrinking, but economic policy is restraining economic growth thus making a positive contribution. Environmental policy attempts to enforce multipollutant reduction, but there is still insufficient focus on the cocontrol of different pollutants and CO2.

A comparative assessment of economic-incentive and command-and-control instruments for air pollution and CO2 control in China's iron and steel sector.

China's iron and steel sector is faced with increasing pressure to control both local air pollutants and CO2 simultaneously. Additional policy instruments are needed to co-control these emissions in this sector. This study quantitatively evaluates and compares two categories of emission reduction instruments, namely the economic-incentive (EI) instrument of a carbon tax, and the command-and-control (CAC) instrument of mandatory application of end-of-pipe emission control measures for CO2, SO2 and NOx. The comparative evaluation tool is an integrated assessment model, which combines a top-down computable general equilibrium sub-model and a bottom-up technology-based sub-model through a soft-linkage. The simulation results indicate that the carbon tax can co-control multiple pollutants, but the emission reduction rates are limited under the tax rates examined in this study. In comparison, the CAC instruments are found to have excellent effects on controlling different pollutants separately, but not jointly. Such results indicate that no single EI or CAC instrument is overwhelmingly superior. The environmental and economic effectiveness of an instrument highly depends on its specific attributes, and cannot be predicted by the general policy category. These findings highlight the necessity of clearer identification of policy target priorities, and detail-oriented and integrated policy-making among different governmental departments.

Co-control of local air pollutants and CO2 in the Chinese iron and steel industry.

The present study proposes an integrated multipollutant cocontrol strategy framework in the context of the Chinese iron and steel industry. The unit cost of pollutant reduction (UCPR) was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of each emission reduction measure. The marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO2 were drawn based on the UCPR and the abatement potential. Air pollutant equivalence (APeq) captures the nature of the damage value-weights of various air pollutants and acts as uniformization multiple air pollutants index. Single pollutant abatement routes designed in accordance with the corresponding reduction targets revealed that the cocontrol strategy has promising potential. Moreover, with the same reduction cost limitations as the single pollutant abatement routes, the multipollutant cocontrol routes are able to obtain more desirable pollution reduction and health benefits. Co-control strategy generally shows cost-effective advantage over single-pollutant abatement strategy. The results are robust to changing parameters according to sensitivity analysis. Co-control strategy would be an important step to achieve energy/carbon intensity targets and pollution control targets in China. Though cocontrol strategy has got some traction in policy debates, there are barriers to integrate it into policy making in the near future in China.

Research on buildings impacting on aerosol diffusing in urban area using remote sensing.

Employing remote sensing method to interpret the building volumetric ratio and aerosol status in Guangzhou, China. The relation between them and identified characteristics of their spatial distribution was analyzed. Results showed that building density and aerosol status are strongly correlated. It is indicated that the resistance of building to aerosol diffusing is one of factors influencing air pollution in urban area. On the basis of calculated results, building voluminous ratio of 5.6 is taken as the threshold impacting on aerosol diffusing, so the building voluminous ratio of Guangzhou should be limited to less than 5.6 in order to alleviate air pollution.

[Cost-benefit analysis to substituting natural gas for coal project in large Chinese cities].

Since China's large cities were faced with serious coal-smoke pollution with PM10 and SO2 as the main pollutants, natural gas is becoming one of the most attractive clean replacers of coal. To clarify the wide disputation and doubt on the rationality of burning natural gas instead of coal, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of urban natural gas substitution projects in Beijing and Chongqing was done respectively, in which, the health benefit was carefully estimated with epidemical dose-response function as the main external benefit. The final result shows that in large cities with intensively concentrated population and economic activities, natural gas consumption as municipal civil energy has obvious priority in terms of large environmental benefit from reducing non-point and low-altitude air pollutant concentration. This paper finally recommends that market oriented system reform in natural gas production and retailing system should be considered.